NOAA Predicts a Very Strong El Niño: Is Your Santa Cruz County Home Ready?

A potentially historic El Niño is developing for the 2026–27 winter. Here's what Santa Cruz County homeowners should know before the rainy season begins.

After a long, dry summer, preparing for rain might not be at the top of your to-do list—but this year, it may be worth getting an early start.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026–27. Even more notably, NOAA currently gives the event a 69% chance of reaching a level that would exceed previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950 during the October–December period.

But before you start stocking up on umbrellas, there's an important distinction to make: a very strong El Niño does not guarantee an exceptionally rainy winter in Santa Cruz County. El Niño is only one of several factors that influence California's weather, and even historically strong events have produced very different rainfall patterns throughout the state.

What the forecast does give us is a good reason to prepare.

Start at the Top: Inspect Your Roof and Gutters

Your roof is your home's first line of defense against winter weather, so don't wait for the first big storm to discover a problem.

Look for damaged or missing roofing materials, areas where water may be getting in, and flashing that needs attention. Gutters and downspouts should also be cleared of leaves and debris so rainwater has somewhere to go.

Santa Cruz County specifically recommends clearing gutters, downspouts, ditches and culverts before winter storms arrive.

Pay Attention to Where the Water Goes

Getting water off the roof is only half the job—you also need to know where it's going once it reaches the ground.

Check the drainage around your home and look for areas where water collects or flows toward the foundation. Existing drainage systems, ditches and culverts should be clear and functioning properly before sustained rain begins.

If you already have drainage problems, don't assume that simply redirecting the water somewhere else is the solution. Drainage can become complicated on steep or landslide-prone properties, and the County recommends seeking professional guidance in those situations.

Look for Signs of Water Intrusion

Small vulnerabilities can become much bigger problems after several days of rain.

Take a look around windows, doors and other exterior openings for gaps, damaged seals or signs that water has gotten in previously. If you've noticed staining, moisture, bubbling paint or recurring leaks during past winters, now is the time to figure out where that water is coming from.

Catching a problem in September is a lot easier than trying to solve it during a storm in January.

Don't Forget About Slopes

This is one area where preparing a Santa Cruz County home can look very different from preparing a home somewhere else.

Our hills and mountainous terrain make portions of the county susceptible to landslides and debris flows. The California Geological Survey notes that if rainfall is above average or multiple storms arrive back-to-back, saturated soil and rock on steep slopes can increase landslide risk.

If your property includes a slope, protect existing vegetation and watch for changes such as new cracks, unusual erosion, leaning trees or movement in the soil. Significant concerns should be evaluated by an appropriate professional rather than treated as a DIY drainage project.

Homes in or near the CZU burn scar may require additional preparation because some areas continue to face debris-flow risk during significant rainstorms.

Take Care of Exterior Repairs While the Weather Is Still Dry

September is a good time to walk around your property and look at the things you've been meaning to address.

Damaged siding, deteriorating exterior wood, failing seals and other deferred maintenance are much easier to evaluate and repair while conditions are dry. It's also worth looking at trees and large branches around the home and addressing concerns before winter storms bring wind and saturated soil.

You don't have to renovate your entire house in preparation for El Niño. The goal is to identify vulnerable areas now rather than discovering them once the rain arrives.

Have an Emergency Plan

Preparing the house is important, but so is preparing the people who live in it.

Santa Cruz County recommends knowing your evacuation routes, having emergency supplies available and signing up for CruzAware, the County's emergency notification system. If you live in an area susceptible to flooding, landslides or debris flows, knowing how you'll leave—and where you'll go—should be part of your winter preparation.

Preparation Doesn't Require Prediction

No one can tell us exactly how much rain Santa Cruz County will receive this winter.

That's worth remembering when you see headlines about a potentially historic El Niño. NOAA itself cautions that the strength of an El Niño doesn't necessarily determine the strength of its impacts in any particular location.

What we do know is that winter weather is coming, and preparing your home while the days are still dry can help prevent small vulnerabilities from becoming bigger problems later.

Take a look at your roof. Clear your drainage. Address the repairs you've been putting off. And if you discover a project that's bigger than you can handle on your own, that's where we come in.

At John Fuchs Properties, we've spent more than 40 years working on homes throughout Santa Cruz County. If your home needs a little extra preparation before the rainy season begins, we're here to help.